PHAETHON Analyses Seventh Month of Competitive Electricity Market: Elevated Prices & Zero-Pricing in April 2026

The Republic of Cyprus’s competitive electricity market has now completed its seventh full month of operation, providing further insight into how geopolitical developments, renewable energy penetration, and system flexibility constraints continue to shape market outcomes within the new framework. The April 2026 results indicate that electricity prices remained elevated, primarily driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while at the same time the market continued to experience frequent zero-price periods during midday hours due to strong photovoltaic (PV) generation.

This competitive market framework continues to enhance transparency, strengthen consumer choice, and support Cyprus’s long-term objectives for renewable energy integration, energy security, and alignment with European decarbonisation policies.

At the forefront of monitoring and analysing this transition, the PHAETHON Centre of Excellence (CoE) has published its April Electricity Market Report — the seventh in a monthly series delivering transparent, data-driven analysis of Forward Market activity, Day-Ahead Market price formation, generation mix trends, and the evolving role of renewables in shaping market outcomes. This edition continues the application of PHAETHON’s electricity price forecasting methodology to the Cypriot market, demonstrating promising performance in capturing low-price periods.

As noted by Dr Andreas Kyprianou, Associate Professor at the University of Cyprus, Member of PHAETHON CoE, and co-author of the report:

“April’s results confirm that while geopolitical tensions continue to exert upward pressure on electricity prices, the structure of price formation within the Cypriot market remains strongly shaped by the interaction between photovoltaic generation, demand, and system flexibility. In particular, we observe persistent zero-price periods during midday hours, driven by high PV output, alongside pronounced evening price increases when demand is met by conventional generation.”

📊 Key findings from April 2026:

• Average Day-Ahead Market (DAM) price: €171.67/MWh — elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but lower than March.
• Volume-Weighted Average Price (DWAP): €224.51/MWh — indicating persistently higher traded-weighted price levels across the month.
• Zero-price events: observed on all days except 1 April — reflecting widespread midday oversupply driven by strong PV generation.
• Maximum Market Clearing Price (MCP): €309/MWh — recorded during evening peak demand hours when conventional generation sets the marginal price.
• Forward Market (FM) activity: reached the highest level since market launch, with sustained elevated trading volumes throughout April.
• Generation mix: reduced conventional generation in DAM, with increased reliance on RES during midday hours.
• Intraday price formation: clear three-period structure — overnight stability, midday PV-driven suppression, and evening price recovery.
• Price drivers: results confirm joint dependence on RES generation, residual load, and system flexibility constraints.

🔎 New in this report

• First near-universal occurrence of zero-price events, with zero MCPs observed on all days except 1 April, highlighting the increasing dominance of midday PV-driven oversupply conditions.
• Strengthened evidence of weak coupling between weather conditions and tradable RES volumes, indicating that higher solar irradiation does not necessarily translate into proportionally higher market-cleared renewable energy.
• Record-high Forward Market activity, reaching its highest level since market launch and reinforcing the growing interaction between forward positioning and Day-Ahead price formation.

Market insights

Overall, the April results reinforce the structural characteristics of Cyprus’s emerging electricity market. High photovoltaic penetration continues to drive frequent zero-price periods during midday hours, while evening peak demand remains the dominant driver of price spikes under conditions of limited flexibility.

At the same time, electricity price formation remains driven by the interaction between renewable energy availability, residual demand, and system constraints, rather than renewable generation alone. This continues to highlight the importance of flexibility solutions, storage deployment, and demand-side measures in ensuring that increasing renewable penetration translates into more stable and efficient market outcomes.

Further Information

For further information, please contact:

• Professor George E. Georghiou — [email protected]
• Dr Andreas Kyprianou — [email protected]
• Mr Stylianos Loizidis — [email protected]

Download Report

You can download the full PHAETHON Electricity Market Report – April 2026 here: